After the turbulence of 2024 - can the bike industry survive another wet winter?

Over the last 12 months, the bike industry - or, what remains of it, as there were high-profile casualties - has navigated a perfect storm.

One of the biggest factors in the industry turbulence of 2024 was the massive oversupply of midmarket bikes in the retail supply chain, caused by overstocking in response to a sharp and unsustainable increase in demand over the Covid pandemic. Not only did this mean bike shops had to slash their prices to try and shift stock, but, those shops weren’t buying more stock from the distributors, which is why so many went pop last year as well.

Undercover Mechanic

Cycling Weekly's Undercover Mechanic will be publishing his thoughts on the state of the industry once a month. He's been working with bikes for over two decades, offering servicing on models from some of cycling's best (and worst) marques. You'll find him at all major trade shows and events, just don't expect him to make himself known.

The supply and demand imbalance was compounded by the fact that 2024 was the warmest year on record here in the northern hemisphere, resulting in seemingly incessant rain all year round in the UK. Not only did this dampen enthusiasm, especially among more casual riders and commuters, but many events, organised rides and races had to be cancelled, impacting the sense of community around cycling - and - the need for equipment.

The thing is, I’ve been around this industry long enough now to have seen these bubbles grow and pop with frustrating regularity. Following the incredible surge during Covid it was inevitable that there would have to be a correction. I firmly believe that what we are left with going into 2025 is a much more resilient and innovative industry. Retailers, manufacturers and distributors have all had to rethink how they do business.

Many of the traditional high street retailers have had to come to terms with the fact that they are never going to compete with the online giants flogging grey import groupsets, especially while the manufacturers don’t seem to have any interest in enforcing consumer pricing. In response, they have diversified into new products, services or experiences; just look at how many bike shop mechanics are now also YouTube content creators.

There also seems to be no stopping the growth of virtual platforms, like Zwift. I can’t remember a year previously when we’ve been asked to build so many indoor bikes - essentially a bike without wheels or brakes - than in 2024. Bike fitters I know are now seeing customers who only ride indoors, and don’t even own a set of wheels. I would like to think that this growing community will eventually want to move to riding outdoors once we get a decent summer, but if not, at least they represent an area of growth in the market.

One of the other success stories of 2024 was the gravel bike. With people increasingly worried about riding on wet slippery roads with aggressive motorists, the lure of riding your bike on unmade surfaces has become increasingly attractive. A bit of mud and rain only adds to these adventures and the trend looks set to stay.

If you look at the bike industry statistics online, the other big winner of the last 12 months was e-bikes. This was pretty evident even at the annual trade show, Eurobike, last year, where seemingly over 50% of the bikes on display housed a motor. Looking at the data, in 2019 the revenue from electric bikes surpassed that of conventional bikes globally and is set to continue to increase up until at least 2029, whereas the average revenue for conventional bikes went down last year and is projected to continue to decline slowly going forward over the same time period. A growth in e-bikes can only benefit bricks and mortar businesses, who will be called upon to sell them and keep them running.

So is the weather in 2025 going to have such a big impact on the industry as it did last year? Although my name isn’t Michael Fish, I don’t think so. Looking at the predictions for this year we are still likely to have a pretty stormy spring, but the summer is potentially not so warm globally and thus we may see less rain. Even if the weather was as bad as last year, I don’t think it will have as much impact. Much of the self correction post-Covid is now over and the cycling public, will continue finding ways around adversity as they usually do.

In our own corner of the world, even in the first couple of weeks this year, my own business has definitely seen green shoots of growth. Asking around other owners, all of the more progressive ones are reporting the same. Cycling Weekly's own investigation into the picture beyond 2025 showed a similar mindset. So here’s to 2025. The year when we all decide to just get on with it regardless of the weather, as that only makes every ride more epic right? Although I might take out some shares in Gore-Tex…