Tadej Pogačar’s biggest threat at this Giro d’Italia could be Tadej Pogačar

Adam Becket

News editor at Cycling Weekly, Adam brings his weekly opinion on the goings on at the upper echelons of our sport. This piece is part of The Leadout, a newsletter series from Cycling Weekly and Cyclingnews. To get this in your inbox, subscribe here. As ever, email adam.becket@futurenet.com - should you wish to add anything, or suggest a topic.

Three and a bit days into this Giro d’Italia, and, as we expected, it already feels like Tadej Pogačar’s to lose. He has gained time on every stage so far, including decisive gaps on stage two to Oropa. He is comfortably in the pink jersey of the race leader, with 46 seconds over Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers). It is tempting to declare it race over already, to suggest that the GC battle is done, but that’s not how Grand Tour racing works. There are still 19 days to go.

Another GC rider might kick straight into defence mode, but that is not Pogačar’s style, as we have already seen this week. For the rest of the peloton, stage three was a nailed-on sprint day, but not for the UAE Team Emirates rider, hence his late surge to the line. He is the only rider you can really imagine trying to win every stage, just because.

The biggest danger for the Slovenian might not be his opponents, as good as Thomas looks, but in his desire to race at every moment. It is already clear, if it wasn’t before the race, that the Slovenian is the best bike racer present at the Giro d’Italia.

The 25-year-old’s unbound enthusiasm and insatiable desire to attack is part of what makes him one of the most electrifying riders to watch ever, and turns even potentially dull stages like Monday’s into gripping thrillers. Every day is a GC stage when the UAE Team Emirates rider is involved.

However, his energy, unlike his desire, cannot be limitless. A 3km to go wild attack may not use up a lot of energy, but it will deplete reserves. Can the Giro’s current leader keep this up for 21 days? He seems to have more matches in his box than anyone else, but history would suggest that his matchbox is as  finite as the next human’s.

Overexuberance has cost him at the last two Tours de France, as Jonas Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike have managed to get him to expend too much energy and finally collapse, as on the Col de Granon in 2022 and on the Col la Loze in 2023.

In 2022, post-defeat, Pogačar vowed not to change his style: "Jumbo-Visa just outplayed me, they were really strong. It was just one stage. I enjoyed racing so much, and I don’t think I will change my style."

He has not. He remains as attacking as ever, and that is part of what cost him at last year’s Tour too. 

Vingegaard is not here, and so Pogačar’s job is somewhat easier, but we should not think that this race will automatically be a procession for him. Teams like Ineos Grenadiers and Bora-Hansgrohe have the ability to make the Giro hard, and if they can tempt Pogačar to keep attacking, then perhaps he won’t be unbeatable after all. 

Conservative GC racing is not something he does, it’s something he seems almost incapable of really, so if he can be lured into burning through those matches, then something will have to give. Keep the pressure on, keep trying to take stage wins away from Pogačar, and he might keep chasing. Isolate the 25-year-old, and make him work. This is how Visma have turned him over in the past couple of years, and there are a lot of teams who should be willing to take him on over the next few weeks.

Something will have to give, especially, as the Slovenian is aiming to win the Tour de France in July too, before heading to the Olympic Games as one of the favourites too. The thing that might just give is his ultra-attacking style, although don’t bet on it.

This piece is part of The Leadout, the offering of newsletters from Cycling Weekly and Cyclingnews. To get this in your inbox, subscribe here.

If you want to get in touch with Adam, email adam.becket@futurenet.com.